What Makes The Current US Shutdown Different (and More Intractable)?
Government closures are a repeat feature in American political life – but this one feels especially difficult to resolve due to political dynamics and deep-seated animosity among the two parties.
Some government services are temporarily suspended, and about 750,000 people are expected to be put on unpaid leave since Republicans and Democrats remain unable to reach consensus regarding budget legislation.
Legislative attempts to resolve the deadlock have repeatedly failed, and it is hard to see an off-ramp in this instance as each side – including the nation's leader – perceive advantages in digging in.
These are the four ways that make things feel different currently.
First, For Democrats, it's about Trump – not just healthcare
Democratic supporters has been demanding for months for their representatives more forcefully fights the current presidency. Well now the party leadership have an opportunity to show their responsiveness.
In March, the Senate's top Democrat was fiercely criticised for helping pass GOP budget legislation thus preventing a government closure early this year. This time he's digging in.
This is a chance for the Democratic party to demonstrate they can take back some control from an administration pursuing its agenda assertively with determined action.
Opposing the GOP budget proposal carries electoral dangers that the wider public will grow frustrated with prolonged negotiations and impacts accumulate.
Democratic representatives are using the shutdown fight to highlight concerns about expiring health insurance subsidies and Republican-approved government healthcare cuts affecting low-income populations, which are both unpopular.
They are also trying to curtail the President's use of presidential authority to cancel or delay funding authorized legislatively, a practice demonstrated in international assistance and other programmes.
2. For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The administration leader and one of his key officials have made little secret their perspective that they smell a chance to make more of the cutbacks to the federal workforce that have featured in the Republican's second presidency so far.
The nation's leader personally said last week that the government closure had afforded him an "unprecedented opportunity", adding he intended to cut "Democrat agencies".
Administration officials stated they would face the "unenviable task" of mass lay-offs to maintain critical federal operations if the shutdown continued. The Press Secretary said this was just "budgetary responsibility".
The scope of the potential lay-offs remains unclear, though administration officials has been in discussions with the Office of Management and Budget, or OMB, under the leadership of the administration's budget director.
The budget director has already announced the suspension of federal funding for Democratic-run parts of the country, such as NYC and Chicago.
3. There's little trust between both parties
While previous shutdowns have been characterised by extended negotiations between the two parties aimed at restoring federal operations, there appears to be minimal cooperative willingness for compromise presently.
Conversely, animosity prevails. The bad blood persisted recently, as both sides blaming each other for causing the impasse.
The legislative leader from the majority party, charged opposition members with insufficient commitment toward resolution, and maintaining positions during discussions "for electoral protection".
Meanwhile, the opposition's chief made similar charges at the other side, stating how a Republican promise regarding health funding talks once the government reopens can not be taken seriously.
The President himself has inflamed the situation by posting a computer-created controversial depiction featuring the opposition leader along with another senior opposition figure, where the legislator is depicted with a large Mexican-style sombrero and facial hair.
The representative and other Democrats called this racist, a characterization rejected by the administration's second-in-command.
Fourth, The American Economy faces vulnerability
Analysts expect approximately two-fifths of government employees – more than 800,000 people – to face furlough due to the shutdown.
This will reduce consumer expenditure – and also have wider ramifications, as environmental permitting, patent approvals, interrupted vendor payments along with various forms of government activity tied to business cease functioning.
The closure additionally introduces fresh instability within economic systems already being roiled by changes ranging from trade measures, previous budget reductions, enforcement actions and technological advancements.
Analysts estimate potential reduction of approximately 0.2% off US economic growth for each week it lasts.
However, economic activity generally rebounds most of that lost activity after a shutdown ends, as it would after disruption caused by a natural disaster.
That could be one reason why the stock market have shown limited reaction by the current stand-off.
On the other hand, analysts say that if the President carries out his threat of mass firings, the damage could be more long-lasting.